A critical review of the current debate about secular stagnation
Abstract
The current stage of meager and fragile growth in the central economies provoked the reappearance of the hypothesis of secular stagnation. A group of theoretical explanations attributes the stagnation to the development of aggregate excess savings, but refuse to dwell on the role played by retained earnings within companies. This paper offers an estimate of the excess savings at the industry level for 15 OECD countries, and documents its upward trend since 1980. In addition, it discusses further evidence that allows to put forward that certain long-term transformations experienced by the accumulation of capital worldwide (falling labor costs, increased international trade and investment, intensification of competition, overcapacity, etc) contributed to stagnation.
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